French Presidential elections final and next steps

25 April 2022

Emmanuel Macron was reelected President of the Republic for a second 5-year term this evening, April 24th.

Overall estimated results at 8pm:

• Voter turnout – 71.8% (73.69% participation rate in the 1^st round of the 2022 election)
• Emmanuel Macron – 58.2%
• Marine Le Pen – 41.8%

Emmanuel Macron’s victory seemed all but assured these past days, his lead having broadened after a dry spell before the 1^st round.

Next steps:

• Resignation of the government and appointment of a Prime Minister by the reelected President in the coming days;
• New government appointed next weekend/over the course of next week;
• Official end of Macron’s term on May 13^th, which is therefore the deadline for his inauguration;
• Legislative elections on June 12^th and 19^th, 2022;
• Naming of a new Prime Minister followed by that of a new government in the days following the second round of the legislative elections.

The electoral drama and associated institutional renewal will thus go on for a few weeks, particularly in view of the uncertainty resulting from the presidential elections.

The electoral drama and associated institutional renewal will thus go on for a few weeks, particularly in view of the uncertainty resulting from the presidential elections.

While legislative elections in France have always, at least since the establishment of the current institutions, resulted in a legislative majority of the same political stripe as the newly-elected President, the current political conditions do not allow predicting the outcome of these elections with any certainty, opening a new phase in French political and institutional dynamics:

• The presidential elections have shined a light on a certain erosion of trust in the current system with a majority of voters casting votes for populist candidates in the first round (France not being an exception, this pattern of distrust is similar to that observed in other established core democracies in recent decades). It remains to be seen how they will vote in the legislative elections when faced with the same candidates/ parties;
• The two front runners have consistently won national elections (European and presidential) and, just as consistently, largely lost local elections. Legislative elections being a mix of both, it is complicated to foresee at this point in time how the post-presidential dynamics will be set in motion;
• Emanuel Macron will doubtless try and pull off the same “feat” as in 2017 and try to get elected to the National Assembly political novices he can place his full trust in or else long-time afficionados, but it is unlikely that he will be able to gather such a large majority around him, if he manages to get a majority at all. For the time being, his plan to form a big party mustering all the political sensitivities backing him has been unsuccessful.

The current political conditions do not allow predicting the outcome of these elections with any certainty, opening a new phase in French political and institutional dynamics.

Of note: the legislative elections are two-round elections for single-member districts (represented by a single officeholder) organized in each of the 577 districts. Only candidates who have obtained more than 12% of the votes cast by registered voters qualify for the second round or, otherwise, if at least 2 candidates have not obtained more than 12% of the votes, the two candidates having scored the most votes. The winner is the person with the most votes in the second round.

As matters now stand, the level of participation (expected to be lower than usual), could well determine the political hues of the next National Assembly. The logic of electoral math dictates that political deals should be sought as of the first round to secure a chance of being present in the second round, the configuration of which will depend on the level of voter turnout and on the ability to bring together a relative majority around the name of the candidates. Local political personalities risk playing a more important role than usual in relation to the national dynamics.

The French legislative elections can thus be seen as a third round that could see a majority leader emerge who is not completely, if at all, aligned with the newly elected President.

This is something that Jean-Luc Mélenchon (left and hard left), on the strength of his 22% score in the 1^st round of the presidential election, has clearly understood. Last week, he called on voters to flip the situation by giving him a majority in the National Assembly.

As matters now stand, the level of participation (expected to be lower than usual), could well determine the political hues of the next National Assembly.

What does it mean for the political stakeholders:

For Macron, the objective is to:

• Give a new boost to the center-right and empty Les Républicains (LR) party of what was left of its substance, LR suffering from the trauma of defeat and financial difficulties;
• Manage to neutralize allies or avoid being forced into coalition agreements, which is not in keeping with his intellectual tradition or mindset.

For the conservative right/far right:

• Contrary to what she said a few weeks before the first round, Marine Le Pen has already announced that she will remain in politics;
• Zemmour’s Reconquête ! party has already called for a “reunification of the right” with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and the most right-wing faction of Les Républicains party;
• For the time being, Marine Le Pen has not taken him up on this idea, having no interest in lending legitimacy to a far-right competitor in a legislative election where the winner (in whose shoes she can see herself) takes all;
• In this scenario, the prospect of a leadership struggle between Eric Zemmour and political heiress Le Pen, could soon arise.

For the left:

What is at stake is to create a legislative momentum despite having lost in presidential elections where it failed to overcome the divisions it would have needed to if it were to have any chance to win or at the very least wield some political clout.