French snap elections – 2nd round results and next steps

Below are the official results of the 2^nd round of the legislative elections held June 30^th and July 7^th, as well as the possible government scenarios and next steps.

An unprecedented political period is opening in France, characterized by numerous uncertainties.

 

Official results

Turnout: 66.63%. By way of reminder, the turnout for the 1^st round was 66.71%, the highest since the legislative elections of 1997.

 

Results and makeup of the National Assembly:

 

Note that the following allocation of seats between the different groups is only an estimate, pending publication this Friday, July 19^th of the political declarations and final composition of the parliamentary groups in the National Assembly.

 

• The left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP – New Popular Front) – 180 seats
• • France unbowed (LFI, more radical left) – 71 seats;
  • Socialist Party (PS, center-left) – 64 seats;
  • Green Party (center-left) – 33 seats;
  • Communist Party – 9 seats;
  • Others: 3 seats.

 

• Presidential majority Ensemble – 163 seats
• • Renaissance (presidential party) – 98 seats;
  • Modem (center to center-right) – 34 seats;
  • Horizons group or Horizons and affiliated group (centre-right) –26 seats;
  • Others: 5 seats.

 

• Rassemblement national (far right RN – National Rally) and allies – 143 seats:
  • RN – 126 seats;
  • Allies led by the contested LR’s head, Eric Ciotti – 17 seats.

 

• Les Républicains (LR – The Republicans, center right) – 66 seats.

 

 

Preliminary analysis and scenarios:

 

Against all expectations, the “republican front” against the far-right RN has succeeded, placing the RN in third place behind both the left-wing alliance NFP and the presidential majority Ensemble, and far from being able to form a governing majority.

However, neither the NFP nor the presidential majority can form a government on their own.

Accordingly, there will be no absolute majority in the National Assembly, which is the most influential house of Parliament (in particular, in case of disagreement with the Senate, the French Constitution gives it the last word over almost all legislative decisions).

Coalition governments supported by political parties with a majority in Parliament, as is standard practice in most other countries in Europe, are not part of French culture. The French Constitution of 1958, as framed by its drafters, was specifically designed to avoid instability in the country due to shifting political majorities, and was successful in doing so until 2022.

In this context, several short-term scenarios are possible, but none rules out a situation of instability that could lead to the National Assembly being dissolved again after June 9^th, 2025 in accordance with the Constitution (Article 12 of the Constitution provides that the President cannot dissolve the National Assembly in the year following these elections) or the use of other constitutional tools that would trigger political crises and/or new elections.

 

1. Attal government remains in place to handle day-to-day business

By way of reminder, the French President had announced, once the outcome of the election became known, that he wanted to wait for the National Assembly to ‘get organized’ to be able to take into account the new balance of power in the National Assembly when deciding on the new Prime Minister. In an open ‘letter to the French’ published on July 10^th, Emmanuel Macron also made this appointment conditional on the formation of a coalition in Parliament that does not include lawmakers from the RN or LFI.

In the meantime, Gabriel Attal, whose resignation was accepted this Tuesday July 16^th by the President, will continue to head a caretaker government to handle ‘day-to-day affairs’. Although what exactly is meant by this is not defined by the French Constitution, it refers to a range of decisions and tasks to ensure the continued functioning of the State and State agencies and departments, and avoid their paralysis.

This scenario could drag on at least until the end of the parliamentary session beginning on July 18^th, when a statutory session of Parliament will open for two weeks, to elect the top officials in the National Assembly. The Government could hold on until the opening of the next session by no later than October 1^st (date when the ordinary parliamentary session begins).

It could also manage to hold on to power if the other scenarios fall through and continue to run the country by seeking ad hoc issue-based majorities.

 

2. President appoints a Prime Minister from the ranks of the NFP, the first declared force within the National Assembly

In this scenario, assuming the NFP were to go along with it, the Government would face a no confidence vote very quickly.

However, before this can occur, the four parties forming the NFP majority would have to agree first on a Prime Minister and also on the composition of their Government – a task that appears very difficult after 10 days of unsuccessful negotiations. Strategic disagreements appeared on the very evening of the 2^nd round, pitting LFI leaders, who were quick to call for the uncompromising implementation of the planks of the NFP’s platform, against Socialist (PS) and Green leaders, who for their part expressed more moderate and flexible positions as to the future of the platform around which this electoral alliance was forged.

 

3. A purely technocratic Government looking for ad hoc issue-based majorities

The President of the Republic names as Prime Minister a more or less consensual figure supported by several of the political forces represented in the National Assembly. These forces could then have representatives in the Government. A couple of coalition sub-scenarios could be possible depending on the results:

• A Government bringing together the presidential majority, moderate Socialists, Greens and potentially LR (“national unity”-type coalition). In this respect, it should be noted that for now at least, LR lawmakers have announced that they would refuse this type of scenario and prefer an approach based on building ad hoc issue-based majorities in the National Assembly.
• Government formed by all or part of the NFP and the presidential majority, but which will have to build ad hoc issue-based majorities.

 

These 3 scenarios are not incompatible and could follow on one another.

 

Next steps:

 

• Appointment of a Prime Minister and formation of a Government

The formation of the Government will be a 2-step process:

– The President will name a Prime Minister:

“The President of the Republic names the Prime Minister” (Article 8 of the Constitution). There is therefore no obligation to name a Prime Minister from the party with the most seats in the National Assembly. While it makes political sense, it is not required by law.

The choice of Prime Minister and the composition of the Government, which is accountable to Parliament (Article 20 of the Constitution), is determined by their ability to resist a motion for a vote of no confidence (Articles 49 and 50 of the Constitution) and/or to push through legislation.

 

– On the proposal of the Prime Minister, the President will name the other members of the Government (Article 8 of the Constitution).

The Constitution does not set a deadline for these 2 steps, but Republican tradition requires the Prime Minister to tender his or her resignation to the President the day after the results of the legislative elections (this is known as a “courtesy resignation”). A Prime Minister will then be named in the following days, before the appointment of the government, here again typically within 2 to 8 days.

Since he came to power, Emmanuel Macron has broken a lot of unwritten conventions of French institutional life. By way of example, almost six weeks passed before Gabriel Attal was named Prime Minister in the Macron II government and all of the positions in his Government filled. For this reason, it impossible to anticipate his next step, except that he will not act before the National Assembly has elected its governance, likely the week of July 22^nd.

So long as a new Government has not been named, Government ministers need to stay in their jobs and manage day-to-day business.

 

• Parliamentary session “by right” between July 18^th and August 1^st

This is the only timeline that is set in stone at this stage. In point of fact, under Article 12 of the Constitution, following a dissolution, the newly elected National Assembly meets for a session “by right”, which opens on the second Thursday following the election if the ordinary session is not open, for a period of 15 days.

Elections for governance positions within the National Assembly are scheduled to be held between July 18^th and 20^th. This session is not reserved solely for the filling of key positions, and the lawmakers can also legislate during these 15 days. This happened back in 1968, 1981, 1988 and 1997.

In such case, the question of whether the Government or the National Assembly will decide on the agenda is unclear, Article 48 of the Constitution simply providing that it is defined “by the Government or the National Assembly”.

 

July 15th