On Sunday, June 9th, 2024, a new political and institutional era opened in France. President Macron’s announcement that he was dissolving the National Assembly, which came as a bombshell on the night of a heavy defeat for the presidential majority in the European elections, has opened a new period that should usher in major changes in French political and institutional life. Since then, France has been facing situations fraught with uncertainty, and a break with how things have been done for decades.
The Paris 2024 Olympics and Paralympics and the global spotlight on them and on the city of Paris offer a much-needed respite and moments of lightness, the focus now being on festivities, a celebration of French culture and athletes. The return to work in September will doubtless be a very busy and high-stakes period. The dynamics of upheaval in our institutional mechanisms and the redefinition of political balances are set to resume very rapidly.
This context of political and institutional crisis could, however, be an opportunity to modernize a system that is clearly no longer in sync with the times.
Origins of a shift in institutional paradigm and acceleration of this shift since 2022
Emmanuel Macron’s surprise victory in the 2017 presidential election was an early indicator that the French model in place since 1958 was running out of steam. It heralded the end of a political system organized around two major and blocs/parties: the center-left and the “Gaullist” right,1 around which satellite parties sometimes congregated (the Communist Party – PC where Socialists were concerned, and more traditional right-wing parties by European standards where the Gaullist Party was concerned), allowing them to rotate in power depending on election outcomes.
Over time, Emmanuel Macron ended up simply using institutions for his benefits without attempting to transform the French paradigm as he promised in his 2017 presidential campaign.
His failure to obtain an absolute majority in the recent legislative elections after winning a second term in office in April 2022 has confirmed that institutions built around a legislative branch at the beck and call of a President of the Republic and/or a dominant executive are not in synch with the evolution of society and the will of voters. Since June 2022, the President and the executive branch have de facto begun moving closer to a more classic European practice of forming ad-hoc majorities around individual issues, in the absence of a government power-sharing agreement, but without succeeding in broadening their majority. The logic of a government coalition based on a majority agreement within Parliament has failed to take root so far in France, despite the political reality following the last presidential and legislative elections.
By moving to dissolve the National Assembly following a significant electoral defeat, Emmanuel Macron has completely reshuffled the deck and precipitated these institutional changes.
Main takeaways from the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections
The dynamics underpinning the European elections pointed to a very strong showing or victory of the far right in the legislative elections that was expected to enable them to claim the right to form and lead the next government. These dynamics were broken by the mobilization of all of the other political parties in the race and the rest of the electorate around the “Republican Front” alliance that some thought was outdated. It consists in blocking the road to power to far-right candidates, considered to be outside the “Republican arc” (a slippery concept denoting political parties and groups seen as embodying the values of the French Republic from which the far right is traditionally excluded), whenever they are in a position to win a seat at the National Assembly, by focusing all votes on a single “Republican arc” candidate, who is the best-placed after the first round.
The other surprise that came with the snap legislative elections was the ability of parties on the left, which have been violently clashing for years, to come together and forge an electoral alliance to break the glass ceiling in the first round, and to secure the percentage of votes needed to stay on in the second round. It is this unexpected alliance that came in first in the legislative elections, but not with the margin needed to give its members an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The French political landscape has quickly reshaped itself around 3 major blocs:
- The far right has come out both strengthened and weakened. Its parliamentary group in the National Assembly now has another 37 members, representing an increase of 40%, and is the most homogeneous bloc in the lower house. But the prospect of winning power, which had seemed to be within grasp at the time of the legislative elections of June 30th and July 7th, has receded and its election results have shown just how far it still needs to go in overcoming the rejection of almost 70% of voters, who are willing to vote for candidates with very different convictions to their own, to block the road to power of the far right;
- A classic right-wing bloc, built around the former presidential majority, has progressively occupied the pro-market, pro-EU niche of the French political spectrum. The former presidential majority proved, however, unable to strike a power-sharing deal with the right-wing parties inspired by the Gaullist tradition after the 2022 elections, despite the similarity of their programs and values. This being said, an alliance of convenience did allow them to share most of the leadership positions in the National Assembly between them, including the position of President of the National Assembly (equivalent to the Speaker of the House);
- The left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) came in first in the snap elections but has proved unable to reach a power-sharing agreement or build a credible springboard for the conquest and exercise of power, given the extent of their strategic and policy differences.
Challenge of forming a new Government
The complexities of forming a government under these circumstances are manifold. France is currently being run by a government that has resigned but is staying on in a caretaker role to handle day-to-day business, some of whose members were elected to the National Assembly.
As you may recall, France’s Constitution does not impose any deadline for the appointment of a Prime Minister, which is a matter solely for the President. However, this situation cannot go on forever, firstly, due to the fundamental principle of the separation of powers, and secondly, because its remit does not allow it to seriously prepare the bills, and in particular proposed finance acts, that will need to be passed before the year is out.
As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron officially stated that he will not be naming a Prime Minister “before mid-August” due to the holding of the Olympic and Paralympic Games and asked the leaders of the political forces composing the “Republican front” to find a compromise, reaching out in particular to lawmakers from the newly-formed conservative right group La Droite Républicaine (The Republican Right – LDR), with whom the former majority is trying to strike a deal based on common proposals.
Possible scenarios:
At present, 3 government scenarios seem possible, and could even follow one another although not necessarily in any specific order:
- A Government formed from the ranks of the outgoing majority supported by the conservative right and ad-hoc deals to pass individual pieces of legislation;
- Italian or Spanish-style solutions with a weak government, either formed from the outgoing presidential majority or a technocratic government of experts to pass finance acts and hold on until the situation clears up;
- A Government formed from the ranks of the NFP coalition and a PM from or chosen by the NFP leadership.
In any case, France will continue to be administered if not governed:
- Executive lead in administering/managing the country, as permitted by the Constitution:
Under the French Constitution, laws are the exception and regulations the rule (Articles 34 and 37 of the Constitution).
In addition, in the legislative realm, the law leaves a lot up to regulations.
Furthermore, the legal bases are provided by a bloated corpus of legislation; and EU regulations of direct application.
- Ad-hoc deals on bills when passage through Parliament is mandatory (e.g. for budgetary bills);
- Limited risk of a motion for a vote of no confidence bringing down the government.
The makeup of the National Assembly
The left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) – 193 seats, of which:
- France Unbowed (LFI) – 72 seats;
- Socialist Party (PS) – 66 seats;
- Green Party (Verds) – 38 seats;
- Communist Party (PC) – 17 seats.
The outgoing presidential majority – 166 seats, of which:
- Together for the Republic (EPR) – 99 seats;
- MoDem – 36 seats;
- Horizons – 31 seats.
The National Rally (RN) and allies – 142 seats, of which:
- RN – 126 seats;
- NR’s allies – 16 seats.
The conservative right group LDR – 47 seats.
Allocation of leadership roles:
Yaël Braun-Pivet, from EPR, was re-elected as head of the National Assembly, after 3 rounds of voting, with a narrow lead of just 13 votes over the NFP candidate. She ended up winning thanks to the vote of conservative right lawmakers from the LDR headed by Laurent Wauquiez.
French MPs elected the chairs and bureau members of the 8 standing committees of the National Assembly. The parties of the outgoing presidential majority have managed to hold on to 6 out of the 8 standing committee chairs. The elected chairs are:
- Antoine Armand (EPR), chair of the Economic Affairs Committee;
- Éric Coquerel (LFI – member of the NFP), chair of the Finance Committee;
- Jean-Noël Barrot (Democratic Movement – center to center-right, outgoing presidential majority), chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee;
- Fatiha Keloua-Hachi (PS – NFP), chair of the Cultural Affairs and Education Committee;
- Jean-Michel Jacques (EPR), chair of the Defense and Armed Forces Committee;
- Paul Christophe (Horizons-center-right, outgoing presidential majority), chair of the Social Affairs Committee;
- Sandrine Le Feur (EPR), chair of the Sustainable Development Committee.
Timeline for the next steps
➢ July 26th – August 11th: Paris 2024 Olympic Games;
➢ August 28th – September 8th: Paris Paralympic Games;
➢ September: new meeting of the Conference of the Chairs at the National Assembly;
➢ September 11th: meeting of the National Assembly’s Bureau to decide on how various tasks and responsibilities are divided among its members;
➢ October 1st: start of the ordinary session of Parliament.
