On March 31st, the criminal division of the Paris judicial court found Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National (National Rally, far-right – RN), guilty in a graft case and barred her from public office for a period of 5 years, with immediate effect (meaning that an appeal will not have a suspensive effect). She was also handed a 4-year prison sentence, of which 2 suspended and 2 under house arrest and a fine of €100,000.
By way of reminder, she and members of the National Front, the precursor of the RN, were accused of embezzling European Parliament funds to the benefit of RN to finance the party’s activity in France.
This ruling rocks French politics as it should prevent Marine Le Pen from running in the next presidential election scheduled for 2027, at a time when the latest polls show her either as the frontrunner or, at worst, as securing a spot in the second round.
Impact of the sentencing on her mandate as a member of the National Assembly
The verdict entered by the Paris Court does not have any immediate impact on Marine Le Pen’s mandate as a lawmaker. Accordingly, she can continue to sit in the National Assembly. The Constitutional Council effectively considers that a guilty verdict has no effect on a national mandate currently held so long as the verdict is not final, meaning while still subject to appeal.
Appeal process and timeline
Marine Le Pen announced this afternoon that she will appeal the decision.
She can also request the Paris Court of Appeal to submit an application to the Constitutional Council for a priority preliminary ruling on the issue of the constitutionality (a so called Question Prioritaire de Constitutionnalité, QPC) of a disqualification from public office of a lawmaker accompanied by a provisional enforcement order, a matter on which it has never deliberated.
If a referral of a QPC is made to the Constitutional Council, it will have 3 months in which to render its decision.
Time is now of the essence as everything will hinge on how long it will take for referrals to be made and examined, in other words the proceedings could go on beyond 2027. Unless the Court of Appeal expedite the proceedings, considering the particular situation as well as status of Marine Le Pen. The time lag between a first-level decision and appeal proceedings is typically between 18 and 24 months.
Marine Le Pen addressed the public this evening, unsurprisingly accusing the Paris Court of undermining the rule of law while at the same time expressing confidence that the Court of Appeal will reverse the decision in time for her to run in the 2027 presidential election.
This ‘off-the-cuff’ decision will likely evolve in the coming days or weeks following a more thorough analysis of her situation. In any case, the dynamics of French politics could be significantly reshaped if Marine Le Pen is forced to withdraw from the presidential race, as her second-in-command and President of the RN, MEP Jordan Bardella, does not enjoy an equivalent consensus within his political family.
The political fallout from this decision will continue for months to come. As a reminder, the arguments made by the prosecutor’s office in this case already prompted the National Rally to vote for the no-confidence motion bought by left-wing parties which ended up toppling the last government.
